Alternative To Polls
Traders, journalists and campaigns increasingly cite market prices alongside polling averages as a real-time signal of who is favored to win.
In plain English
When betting odds forecast election outcomes.
It's a marketplace where people bet real money on election outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the crowd's best guess at the odds.
Simple example
During the 2024 cycle, Polymarket hosted more than $3.7 billion in trading volume on U.S. election contracts, while Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling allowing it to list contracts on control of Congress.
Why it matters
What the term actually changes.
Integrity Concerns
Large sums tied to election outcomes raise questions about whether participants could try to influence campaigns, voters or perceptions of momentum to move prices.
How it works
The mechanics, in practice.
Contracts And Prices
Each contract pays $1 if a specified event occurs and $0 if it does not, so a price of 60 cents implies the market sees a 60% chance of that outcome.
Listing And Settlement
An exchange defines the question and resolution source, matches buyers and sellers, and pays out winners after official results are certified.
Related guide
Should election prediction markets be legal in the United States?
Courts, regulators and traders are reshaping a decades-old debate over whether Americans should be able to bet on election outcomes.
Read the guide → Related issue brief
Should election prediction markets be legal in the United States?
Federal courts, regulators and traders are testing whether Americans should be allowed to bet on the outcomes of their own elections.
Read the brief →You’ve learned the term. Now vote.
Should election prediction markets be legal in the United States?
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